According to forecasts of major investors of the oil market, oil quotations in the United States in near future will fall at record rates. This is primarily due to the growth of fuel inventories, which literally wiped out the possible rise of quotations in the nearest future.
For last week on large hedge funds, we can see an increase of short positions on WTI crude oil by 18%. This is a new record level since the July 21, 2015. In turn, long positions increased by only 380 contracts, such data was published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) USA. Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, sees the situation as follows: "It is not enough simply to lower drilling activity in the US. This will not change the balance even in the US market, not to mention the global. Imagine that you have a huge amount of inventory, how much in this case, you will be ready to pay for additional one million barrels of oil?".
Over the past seven days, according to reports from CFTC, futures for WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped in price by 2.4% - to $45.55 per barrel. In today's trading session this morning WTI futures for December rose by 0.6% to $44.86 per barrel.
For the October 2015 crude oil inventories in the US rose to 22.6 million barrels, and now account for 477 million barrels - a maximum in October 1930. According to conclusions of prominent financial analytical publications oil price has been declining for more than 500 days from the record peak in June 2014, and does not intend to stop its fall. At this moment, the oil price is lower than in times of collapses in 1986 and 2008.